Estrela vs Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga
Estrela
Benfica
november 8, 2026 at 21:30 · Estadio Jose Gomes
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Estrela vs Benfica prediction and betting tip for this Portugal Primeira Liga match, kicking off november 8, 2026 at 21:30 at Estadio Jose Gomes. Our tip: Away Win (odds 1.25), 77% confidence.
Estrela vs Benfica Preview
Estrela host Benfica in the Portugal Primeira Liga (matchday 11) on zondag 8 november 2026, kick-off 21:30 GMT+0100 at Estadio Jose Gomes in Amadora. Antonio Nobre is the referee.
Estrela are 12th in the table with 10 points from 10 games (2-4-4), while Benfica sit 2nd on 25 points. Benfica have a 15-point advantage. At home Estrela have won 1 of 5; Benfica have won 4 of 5 on the road.
Estrela have one draw and four defeats in their last 5 league games (D-L-L-L-L), averaging 0,8 goals scored and 2,0 conceded. Benfica have four wins and one defeat in their last 5 league games (W-L-W-W-W), averaging 1,8 goals scored and 1,0 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Estrela have won 0, Benfica 6, with 0 draws and an average of 3,8 goals per game. The most recent, in januari 2026, finished Benfica 4-0 Estrela.
Estrela average 1.5 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets and 3 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Benfica average 2.7 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season, with 5 clean sheets, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: A. Marcus leads Estrela's scoring with 4 goals and 1 assist; V. Pavlidis leads Benfica's scoring with 10 goals and 3 assists.
Bookmakers make Benfica the favourites: Estrela 10.00, draw 5.75, Benfica 1.25 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.44 and under at 2.70. Both teams to score: yes 1.80, no 1.95.
Our prediction: Benfica to win (2). The model makes Benfica favourites at 50%, Benfica have won 4 of their last 5 and they sit 2nd, 10 places above Estrela.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 25 |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
Season stats
| Estrela | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 10 | 10 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 2 / 4 / 4 | 8 / 1 / 1 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 15 (1.5) | 27 (2.7) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 19 (1.9) | 8 (0.8) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.2 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 3.4 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 0 |
| Longest winning run | 1 | 5 |
| Biggest win | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- A. Marcus 4 goals · 1 assist
- L. Antonetti 4 goals · 1 assist
- I. Stoica 4 goals · 2 assists
- V. Pavlidis 10 goals · 3 assists
- G. Prestianni 6 goals · 4 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 7 nov 2026, 12:58. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 0,83 – 2,52 · most likely score 0-2 · data quality 82/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Estrela win | 10,2% |
| Draw | 15,7% |
| Benfica win | 74,0% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 26,0% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 89,8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84,8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65,1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34,9% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 56,9% |
| Both teams to score | 51,9% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 0%, draw 50%, away 50%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 7 nov 2026, 17:28, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Benfica to win (2) — The model makes Benfica favourites at 50%, Benfica have won 4 of their last 5 and they sit 2nd, 10 places above Estrela.
Form (last 5)
Estrela
DLLLL
0,8 scored · 2,0 conceded per game
Benfica
WLWWW
1,8 scored · 1,0 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
0 Estrela wins 0 draws 6 Benfica wins last 6 meetings
- Benfica4 - 0Estrela Primeira Liga
- Estrela0 - 1Benfica Primeira Liga
- Estrela2 - 3Benfica Primeira Liga
- Benfica7 - 0Estrela Taça de Portugal
- Benfica1 - 0Estrela Primeira Liga
- Estrela1 - 4Benfica Primeira Liga
Statistics: API-Football · updated 7 nov 2026, 06:01. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
